The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), known as the “Third Pole of the Earth”, contains fragile ecosystems and is sensitive to global environmental changes. With the intensification of climate change and human activities, the land cover of the QTP is changing significantly, which affects its function as an ecological security barrier.

The entire cascade of scenario generation, global and regional climate modeling, as well as concrete measures towards climate adaptation are subject to uncertainties. An exact prediction of how the climate will change in the coming years, and how it will affect land use, is not possible. There is thus a perceived need to identify ways via which uncertainties can be addressed. Based on the need to address the research gap in this area, this paper reports the findings of a study on uncertainty in a climate change adaptation context, and how it is perceived.

Rapid urbanization results in farmland loss, habitat fragmentation, biodiversity decrease, and greenhouse gas emissions. Land-use policies and planning as administrative means are used to guide sustainable urban development and to balance the location of urban expansion and agricultural activities. To better understand the future implications of a variety of land-use policies, we used a FUTURES model scenario analysis to analyze the potential future patterns of urban areas and the loss and fragmentation of farmland and natural resources at the local level for Xi’an.