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The accelerated urbanization process has resulted in increasingly prominent conflicts in land resource utilization and caused numerous ecological and environmental issues. Simulating the evolutionary patterns of land use conflicts (LUCs) is the foundation for promoting sustainable land use. The Markov and GeoSOS-FLUS models were used to predict the land use patterns under three different development scenarios, and to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of LUCs in Xiamen, China in 2030. Results showed the following: (1) From 2010 to 2020, land use/cover in Xiamen has changed substantially, with an increase of 6.93% in area of construction land and a decrease of 5.40% in area of cropland. (2) In the natural development scenario, the area of construction land in Xiamen is projected to increase, while the areas of cropland and other land types reduce. In the policy intervention scenario, the area of cropland continues increasing and the growth of construction land is effectively controlled. Under the sustainable development scenario, cropland, grassland, and wetlands of high quality that serve important ecological functions have been effectively protected. (3) LUCs in Xiamen differ greatly under the three scenarios in 2030. The sustainable development scenario (SDS) balances the land use needs of both socio-economic development and regional ecological security with the least LUCs, which could be an optimum solution for the long-term sustainable development in Xiamen. The results of this study provide support for decisions about eco-city construction and geospatial planning.
