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Latin American subtropical dry ecosystems have experienced significant human impact for more than a century, mainly in the form of extensive livestock grazing, forest products extraction, and agriculture expansion. We assessed the regional-scale effect of land use and land cover (LULC) on patterns of richness distribution of trees, birds, amphibians, and mammals in the Northern Argentine Dry Chaco (NADC) over c. 19 million hectares. Using species distribution models in a hierarchical framework, we modeled the distributions of 138 species. First, we trained the models for the entire Argentinean Chaco with climatic and topographic variables. Second, we modeled the same species for the NADC including the biophysical variables identified as relevant in the first step plus four LULC-related variables: woody biomass, distance to crops, density of livestock-based rural settlements (puestos), and vegetation cover. Third, we constructed species richness maps by adding the models of individual species and considering two situations, with and without LULC variables. Four, richness maps were used for assessing differences when LULC variables are added and for determining the main drivers of current patterns of species richness. We found a marked decrease in species richness of the four groups as a consequence of inclusion of LULC variables in distribution models. The main factors associated with current richness distribution patterns (both negatively) were woody biomass and density of livestock puestos. Species richness in present-day Semiarid Chaco landscapes is strongly affected by LULC patterns, even in areas not transformed to agriculture. Regional-scale biodiversity planning should consider open habitats such as grasslands and savannas in addition to woodlands.
