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The impact of climate change on hydrological processes and nutrient input is one of the major uncertainties in projecting future global warming. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is applied to simulate the effects of temperature on the hydrology and sediment and nutrient load in the lower Pearl River Basin, South China. Calibration and validation results for SWAT showed that the Yamen estuary is appropriate for simulating the impacts of temperature change on both hydrological processes and nutrient input. The possible temperature change scenarios were set at T–2, T–1.5, T–1, T–0.5, T+0.5, T+1, T+1.5, T+2, T+2.5, T+3°C compared to the current temperature, T°C. The results showed that the relative variation of discharge with temperature was slight. The sediment load at T+3°C is increased by 13.58% compared to that at T°C. Inorganic N and P inputs to the Yamen estuary showed an increasing trend with the temperature increase from T–2°C to T+3°C. Global warming can reduce the vegetation land cover by slowing plant growth, which will aggravate the water and soil loss. Temperature changes would have an effect on mineralization and nitrification by changing soil temperature and temperatures. The warming is projected to cause an increase of sediment and nutrient load into the estuary and accelerate eutrophication in the coastal area.Citation Li, Y., Chen, B.-M., Wang, Z.-G. & Peng, S.-L. (2011) Effects of temperature change on water discharge, and sediment and nutrient loading in the lower Pearl River basin based on SWAT modelling. Hydrol. Sci. J.56(1), 68–83.
