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Land degradation has become one of the major global environmental problems threatening human well-being. Whether degraded land can be restored has a profound effect on the achievement of the 2030 UN Sustainable Development Goals. Therefore, the ways by which to identify the current research status and potential research topics in the massive scientific literature data in the field of land degradation is a crucial issue for scientific research institutions in various countries. In view of the shortcomings in the current research on the thematic evolution and thematic and thematic prediction, such as the ignorance of random features during scientific innovation, the defects of manual classification, and the difficulty of identifying technical terms, this research proposes a new combined method. First, the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm in machine learning is used to capture the potential clustering of themes in the literature sample set of land degradation research. The distribution characteristics and evolution of themes in each period are then analyzed. The method is combined with the Hidden Markov Model (HMM), which contains double stochastic process to quantitatively predict the trend of future thematic evolution. Finally, the above-mentioned combined method is used to analyze the evolution characteristics and future development trends of the themes in the field of land degradation. Comparative experiments show that the method in this study is effective and practical. The research results show that rangeland degradation, surface temperature, island, soil degradation, water quality, crop productivity and restoration are important research topics in the field of land degradation in the future. In addition, based on the advantages of this model, this model can be widely used in the thematic evolution and prediction analysis of different research fields in land use science.
