This study aims to achieve a better understanding of the agricultural risk and risk management situation in Tanzania with a view to identifying key solutions to reduce current gross domestic product (GDP) growth volatility. For the purpose of this assessment, risk is defined as the probability that an uncertain event will occur that can potentially produce losses to participants along the supply chain.

Despite myriad challenges, Kenya has emerged in recent years as one of Africa’s frontier economies, with headline growth in the most recent decade propelling the country toward middle-income status. Less well understood is how risk dynamics associated with production, markets, and policy adversely impact sector performance, in terms of both influencing ex ante decision making among farmers, traders, and other sector stakeholders and causing ex post losses to crops, livestock, and incomes - destabilizing livelihoods and jeopardizing the country’s food security.

This report was prepared by the World Bank in partnership with the Livelihoods and Food Security Multi-Donor Trust Fund (LIFT). Both the World Bank and the LIFT are actively involved in supporting Myanmar’s agriculture sector given its significance in poverty reduction and food security, and they both consider the lack of reliable farm data to be a significant constraint to designing effective programs and policies. This report fills some of the data gaps. In addition to presenting the collected data, the report offers the first analysis of these data.

This work summarizes background papers prepared for the World Bank Group with significant input from government counterparts and other development partners. It takes stock of major recent developments and argues that a lot has been achieved in the last decade in terms of production of commodities for export and food consumption, with favorable impact on rural poverty reduction. It also argues that the two factors driving the recent agricultural performance, namely favorable international prices and expansion of the agricultural frontier, have reached their limits.

Global agriculture will face multiple challenges over the coming decades. It must produce more food to feed an increasingly affluent and growing world population that will demand a more diverse diet, contribute to overall development and poverty alleviation in many developing countries, confront increased competition for alternative uses of finite land and water resources, adapt to climate change, and contribute to preserving biodiversity and restoring fragile ecosystems.

In the future scenario for livestock development, there is a continuing role for smallholder producers, particular for dairy and small ruminants, relying heavily on grass and crop-residues, however in a growth mode, intensifying production, and enhancing the efficiency of resource use (less land, labor and feed resources per unit product). In particular improving the efficiency of converting feed into milk and meat will be critical to increase their income.

Adaptation to human-induced climate change is currently receiving a lot of attention in international development circles. But throughout human existence, natural resource-dependent people have exploited and coped with the effects of climate variability on the ecosystems from which they derive a living. Learning from this experience can help inform the design of appropriate policies for responding to human-induced climate change.

Reforestation measures for degraded lands, strategies for the sustainable management of forest resources, and agroforestry practices that incorporate trees into farming systems are increasingly demonstrating their promise for producing commercialized tree products. Although the level of investment so far has remained modest, the challenge is to find ways to scale up promising investments in a way that will have a clear impact at the landscape level.

The growth of agriculture output over the past 200 years has been phenomenal. When Malthus wrote in 1798, he perceived limits on agricultural production as serious and imminent. Since then world population has increased by six-fold and global agricultural production has more than kept pace. Falling real grain prices for most of the 20th Century are cited as evidence. The sources of the increase in food production, however, have been quite different and have come in distinct waves. For most of the 19th century, increased output came from expanded land area in production.

Agricultural investments made by developing countries and multilateral development banks (MDBs) have declined in recent decades. This decline is associated with a slowdown in the growth of agriculture productivity. Most development institutions have recognized the damage caused by this past neglect, in part evident in rising food prices, and renewed attention to agriculture and agribusiness is emerging. But this renewed interest will need to deliver results, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the MDBs have had the least success but where the needs and opportunities are enormous.

Cattle are one of the main instruments for economic (e.g., milk, meat, and cattle sale) and social (e.g., marriage, death, dispute settlement, and gift giving) exchange in Uganda. They serve as the main source of livelihood for a large majority of rural Ugandans, especially in the cattle corridor. Recent statistics demonstrate that the livestock sector contributes 13.1 percent of the agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) and 5 percent of the national GDP.

The purpose of this paper is to summarize the challenges and the practical successes that a selected number of countries are experiencing in moving towards 'climate-smart' agriculture while also meeting the food requirements of a growing population, broader economic development and green growth objectives. It complements papers prepared in 2010 on technologies and policy instruments, research, and farmers' perspectives.